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J-Yen 1995

It is amazing to see how strongly the Yen moved from 1985 to 1995. A simple Buy and Hold stategy would have been nice here. Although, when markets move well beyond new highs or to extremes, they usually fall very quickly. The top is obvious in this chart - now. Unfortunately, tops are not as obvious until some time after they occur. Greed and nerviousness make trading extreme highs very difficult. One alternative to shorting futures if you think the market has topped is to write out of the money calls. The usually have a very high volatilty premium, which can help increase your odds over trading straight futures.

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